Outside the official government data that is commonly used for economic indicators such as inflation, unemployment, consumer price index etc.., Economists also often use other data that are not commonly used as an indicator of the economy - but no less accurate or even often more accurate in describe the actual situation of the global economy. Among these unusual data is an index of sea freight costs incurred by the Baltic Exchange - London.
Index called the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) illustrates the level of the cost of sea freight from around the world. Every day this data is collected by a large number of brokers from the Baltic sea freight around the world, so this data is accurate and up-to-date. Even the accuracy and the - up - to date resembles his world gold price movements, so that from this data can be analyzed both correlations.
How BDI can tell you about the world economy?, Total transport ships around the world can not be increased or decreased dramatically, meaning that supply capacity of the vessel is relatively stable or increase if nonetheless increases gradually with a very small percentage increase. From the supply of transportation capacity is relatively stable, if the number of items that need to be transported (transport demand) then the price will rise - and vice versa when a number of items that need to be transported less then - would be a great rivalry between the sea freight company so that freight prices will fall .
When the world experienced a serious economic crisis, the world's consumption of goods that need to be reduced drastically so transported at sea also dropped drastically as well. Sea freight prices-even anjlog therefore low demand. Note the chart below BDI for the last quarter of 2008.
After that the world tried to recover with difficulty as shown in the last two years from the above chart. If we enlarge the graph to see how this develops over the last six months, we will look like in the second graph below. Where there is a decrease in demand again the last two months - though not as bad as the end of 2008.
So what does the information that is written between the lines of the BDI and the world gold price?. Its normal price of gold will follow the price of other physical commodities, when commodity prices are low because demand is down - then so too will happen to the price of gold.
This can be shown with the third chart below, where the first graph above BDI which I seized with the world gold price charts in the same period. Not exactly but we can see the pattern of his resemblance to one another.
When no other factors that may influence other than solely by supply and demand, it could be two such graphs (Gold and BDI) will coincide with one another. However, because gold prices are more vulnerable than the moment the issue affected the prices of sea freight, then from time to time differences in the direction of these two graphs.
The last two weeks, for example, the graph of BDI is back up - but instead of gold down the charts - this is what I call the taste factor in my article two days ago with the title "Gold Price: Between the Sense and Reality ...". After a 'taste' the moment passed, then the gold chart going back to his original nature is up!.
In addition to the above factors there are tastes of other differences which drive up the price of gold that are not owned by the BDI, consider the example in the period a year between May 2009 - May 2010. What causes this upward impulse?, This is the factor of inflation or the declining purchasing power of paper money. BDI was measured with paper money with the assumption that purchasing power is stable, while gold prices, as measured by paper money is also going to look up - not because its value goes up, but by the purchasing power of paper money is real down.
So would the direction where the price of gold, the days, weeks or months ahead?, One of which can be inferred from the tip of the BDI graph upwards. Wa Allahu knows best.
SOURCE :
http://www.emas24.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=154:menduga-harga-emas-dari-pergerakan-barang-di-laut&catid=27:new-to-joomla&Itemid=44
Sabtu, 18 September 2010
Kamis, 16 September 2010
GOLD PRICE : SAY BIRDS Canary START OFF
Small bird canary (Serinus Canaria domestica) living in the vicinity of coal mines - typically will die first if it appears mined carbon monoxide, methane gas or other toxic gases that exceed safe levels. The mine workers must immediately leave the mine when I saw this in the dead canary Butung. Canary bird becomes a kind of 'early warning system' for coal miners - that emerged metaphor in English that read "canary in the coal mine", which means less than it was early warning.
Early warning is what Alan Greenspan warned by former Chariman of the Fed during the two decades in the last quarter century. We know in terms of fiat money - money that has no intrinsic value, its value does not depend on physical objects - people know the main players of the world economy is the Fed was American. The value of U.S. $ which is 'controlled' by the Fed this effect directly or indirectly to the entire world economy because the U.S. $ is also a reserve currency in almost all countries in the World. People are very crucial in the 'control of the value of U.S. $' is in America in recent decades Alan Greenspan yes to the above - who served as Chairman of the Fed for 20 years until his retirement four years ago (2006).
The irony is 'teacher' fiat money world is apparently also does not believe in the value of fiat money itself. In his statement before the Council on Foreign Relations, published in The New York Sun two days ago for instance, Greenspan pulled out some 'confessions' which unfortunately did not he remove it while he still served first. Some recognition that shocked the pengagung include fiat money is as follows:
"Fiat money has no place to go but gold,"
"If all currencies are moving up or down together, the question is: relative to what? Gold is the canary in the coal mine. It signals problems with respect to currency markets. Should central banks pay attention to it. "
Greenspan conviction against the gold for 20 years in office he actualised by keeping the U.S. $ to keep it out far from the value of gold. In early August 1987 he served in gold prices stood at a monthly average of U.S. $ 461/Oz, when the retirement end of January 2006 the average gold price of that month stood at U.S. $ 549/Oz. In the pengelolaaannya, gold price in U.S. $ 'only' has increased by 19% in 20 years.
Compare for instance with his successor Ben Bernanke is not yet five years in office, the price of gold was not controlled in U.S. $, up from a monthly average of U.S. $ 461/Oz January 2006 to an average of U.S. $ 1.250 / Oz this month, or an increase of 171% in less than five years!. Ben Bernanke is not entirely wrong indeed, but at least it also reflects the lack peduliannya as Chairman of the Fed to the price of gold - which should be an early warning instrument for the purchasing power of paper money.
Unlike its predecessor Greenspan relatively able to control the purchasing power of U.S. $ to gold because the price of gold as an early warning for fiat money under its control, "... gold is canary in the coal mine ...".
Because of his ignorance of the controller fiat money now, "... the birds canary in a coal mine ..." has been on dying and some dead, in the form of gold prices that surged 171% in U.S. $ for less than five years, or in the amount jumped 160% in the same period (the gold price USD 140 000 per gram in January 2006; Rp 365.000 / g September 2010), then now is the time - 'the quarrymen' - like us-we are to save themselves.
"The sentence wisdom (words of a good / wise) is the weapon of the believers, wherever he got it then he is more entitled to take it" (Narrated by Tirmidhi / Ibn Majjah)
SOURCE :
http://www.emas24.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=157:harga-emas--bila-burung-burung-canary-mulai-mati-&catid=27:new-to-joomla&Itemid=44
Early warning is what Alan Greenspan warned by former Chariman of the Fed during the two decades in the last quarter century. We know in terms of fiat money - money that has no intrinsic value, its value does not depend on physical objects - people know the main players of the world economy is the Fed was American. The value of U.S. $ which is 'controlled' by the Fed this effect directly or indirectly to the entire world economy because the U.S. $ is also a reserve currency in almost all countries in the World. People are very crucial in the 'control of the value of U.S. $' is in America in recent decades Alan Greenspan yes to the above - who served as Chairman of the Fed for 20 years until his retirement four years ago (2006).
The irony is 'teacher' fiat money world is apparently also does not believe in the value of fiat money itself. In his statement before the Council on Foreign Relations, published in The New York Sun two days ago for instance, Greenspan pulled out some 'confessions' which unfortunately did not he remove it while he still served first. Some recognition that shocked the pengagung include fiat money is as follows:
"Fiat money has no place to go but gold,"
"If all currencies are moving up or down together, the question is: relative to what? Gold is the canary in the coal mine. It signals problems with respect to currency markets. Should central banks pay attention to it. "
Greenspan conviction against the gold for 20 years in office he actualised by keeping the U.S. $ to keep it out far from the value of gold. In early August 1987 he served in gold prices stood at a monthly average of U.S. $ 461/Oz, when the retirement end of January 2006 the average gold price of that month stood at U.S. $ 549/Oz. In the pengelolaaannya, gold price in U.S. $ 'only' has increased by 19% in 20 years.
Compare for instance with his successor Ben Bernanke is not yet five years in office, the price of gold was not controlled in U.S. $, up from a monthly average of U.S. $ 461/Oz January 2006 to an average of U.S. $ 1.250 / Oz this month, or an increase of 171% in less than five years!. Ben Bernanke is not entirely wrong indeed, but at least it also reflects the lack peduliannya as Chairman of the Fed to the price of gold - which should be an early warning instrument for the purchasing power of paper money.
Unlike its predecessor Greenspan relatively able to control the purchasing power of U.S. $ to gold because the price of gold as an early warning for fiat money under its control, "... gold is canary in the coal mine ...".
Because of his ignorance of the controller fiat money now, "... the birds canary in a coal mine ..." has been on dying and some dead, in the form of gold prices that surged 171% in U.S. $ for less than five years, or in the amount jumped 160% in the same period (the gold price USD 140 000 per gram in January 2006; Rp 365.000 / g September 2010), then now is the time - 'the quarrymen' - like us-we are to save themselves.
"The sentence wisdom (words of a good / wise) is the weapon of the believers, wherever he got it then he is more entitled to take it" (Narrated by Tirmidhi / Ibn Majjah)
SOURCE :
http://www.emas24.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=157:harga-emas--bila-burung-burung-canary-mulai-mati-&catid=27:new-to-joomla&Itemid=44
Learn Up to China...
Quantitative easing policy of the central bank is to increase the supply of money with his credit his account in his own large amounts of money ex-nihilo or out of nothing or in our language from the clouds. Even money is also no need to print, because enough at the entry at the central bank account - that the money they get - then bertambahlah money.
Money is typed from the air is then circulated through the so-called open market operations, ie when the money (which only exists in computer data) are then really be used to buy financial assets in the form of government bonds, corporate bonds etc.. and flowing into the banks and other financial institusai.
Steps by central banks to do quantitative easing is not too problematic as market participants and users of money the government is still trusted. The problem is when it is more often done - then the value of the currencies of these countries will continue to be eroded quickly and harm anyone who held it.
China for example, who holds U.S. $ largest, since the last few years started to worry about declining purchasing power of their assets in the form of U.S. $ it. Because of this concern, the Chinese continue to diversify its foreign exchange reserves of U.S. Dollars, they are now actively buying the currency-the currency of other countries besides the U.S., like Japan, Thailand, Korea and even some Latin countries.
The Chinese government and state enterprises also began to collect his real assets excluding currency. In between that they collect is gold, iron ore, gas reserves, coal reserves and even wood from the forests of Guyana. From perbagai this preparation, when the value of U.S. $ continues to decline - and even one time can really lose its value at all, then maybe China is the country most ready for it. China even has encouraged and facilitated to-do people buy gold.
At least the Chinese move is certainly encouraging people for the last year the Chinese people who move to U.S. $ his savings into gold having an average profit of about 30% - the average appreciation of the world gold price in U.S. dollars last year.
With more and ramenya discourse or analysis of quantitative easing will likely surge to 2 (QE 2), very possibly the world gold price trend will continue - especially this week we will already be entering in September - where the usual seasonal increase in gold prices also occur.
When China and its people have done a proper anticipation of the policies of other countries against money - especially the U.S., why do not we also "learn to China" in the management of this asset?. Wa Allahu knows best.
Source :
http://www.emas24.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=155:antisipasi-quantitative-easing-2--belajar-sampai-negeri-china&catid=25:the-project&Itemid=44
Money is typed from the air is then circulated through the so-called open market operations, ie when the money (which only exists in computer data) are then really be used to buy financial assets in the form of government bonds, corporate bonds etc.. and flowing into the banks and other financial institusai.
Steps by central banks to do quantitative easing is not too problematic as market participants and users of money the government is still trusted. The problem is when it is more often done - then the value of the currencies of these countries will continue to be eroded quickly and harm anyone who held it.
China for example, who holds U.S. $ largest, since the last few years started to worry about declining purchasing power of their assets in the form of U.S. $ it. Because of this concern, the Chinese continue to diversify its foreign exchange reserves of U.S. Dollars, they are now actively buying the currency-the currency of other countries besides the U.S., like Japan, Thailand, Korea and even some Latin countries.
The Chinese government and state enterprises also began to collect his real assets excluding currency. In between that they collect is gold, iron ore, gas reserves, coal reserves and even wood from the forests of Guyana. From perbagai this preparation, when the value of U.S. $ continues to decline - and even one time can really lose its value at all, then maybe China is the country most ready for it. China even has encouraged and facilitated to-do people buy gold.
At least the Chinese move is certainly encouraging people for the last year the Chinese people who move to U.S. $ his savings into gold having an average profit of about 30% - the average appreciation of the world gold price in U.S. dollars last year.
With more and ramenya discourse or analysis of quantitative easing will likely surge to 2 (QE 2), very possibly the world gold price trend will continue - especially this week we will already be entering in September - where the usual seasonal increase in gold prices also occur.
When China and its people have done a proper anticipation of the policies of other countries against money - especially the U.S., why do not we also "learn to China" in the management of this asset?. Wa Allahu knows best.
Source :
http://www.emas24.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=155:antisipasi-quantitative-easing-2--belajar-sampai-negeri-china&catid=25:the-project&Itemid=44
Rabu, 15 September 2010
9 systemic factors that drive the gold price went up
There are at least nine of systemic factors that inshaAllah will continue to push gold prices up as I summarize the work of Dr. Martin Murenbeeld - Chief Economist of Dundee Wealth Economic as follows:
1. Global Fiscal and Monetary Reflation - ie countries in the world, each of which flooded the economy with debt is not simply to sink into bankruptcy.
2. Global Imbalances - which seems mighty dollar just because the currency of other countries to weaken. Dollar continues to weaken itself is actually a deficit trade balance continues. At least America will add its debt of U.S. $ 10 trillion in this decade.
3. Excessive Global Foreign Exchange Reserves - reserves of the world's countries will be exponential bloated - but stored in the value of paper currency whose value is shrinking - while the gold reserves of the world's countries will continue its decline which started thirty years ago (1980).
4. Attitudes to the Central Bank Gold - the world's central banks will tend to increase the IMF's gold reserves and selling only gold (and Indonesia, which sells 24% gold reserves at the end of 2006 then!). India's central bank such as buying the entire 200 tonnes of IMF gold, which sold late last year, while China's central bank actually managed to double its gold reserves from 395 tonnes to 1.054 tonnes of digits in the last decade.
5. Gold Is Not Bubble - gold price is the price of goods that are physically never loses its value in the history of human civilization. So the high price of gold is not a bubble or a bubble - that could explode and lose its value.
6. Mine Supply Is Flat - Sources of gold from the mine excavation is relatively unable to pursue growth in demand, during the last 20 years only adds to this new mineral supply as much as 25% or an average of just 1.25% per annum.
7. Investment Demand - because of fears of various other investment instruments, investment demand in gold will continue to increase globally. Since the beginning of 2009 world gold demand continues to increase - even in the second quarter of this year the request two times larger than the same period the previous year. This explains why so far this year the world gold price does not go down and down.
8. Commodity Price Cycle - since the year 1800 the world experienced commodity prices cycle up and down periods of each cycle could be one to several decades. So the current bull cycle could still be continued through the next few years.
9. Geopolitical Environment - Historically, gold prices are always high on the political and financial turmoil. World gold price peak like 1980 never happened in the year during the U.S. hostage crisis in Iran are almost triggered a major war. Coming years is still a lot of sources of global conflict that could explode anytime. After the decline of Iraq crisis, for example, there is still triggered the crisis in Afghanistan attack U.S. and allied troops into the country, the crisis triggered by the occupation of Palestinian Jewish soldiers who are not entitled to the area, the courage to continue to prepare Iran's nuclear program, as well as the threat of North Korea can be reckless at any time.
SOURCCE :
http://www.emas24.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=156:harga-emas-dari-september-ke-september--seasonal-dan-systemic&catid=27:new-to-joomla&Itemid=44
1. Global Fiscal and Monetary Reflation - ie countries in the world, each of which flooded the economy with debt is not simply to sink into bankruptcy.
2. Global Imbalances - which seems mighty dollar just because the currency of other countries to weaken. Dollar continues to weaken itself is actually a deficit trade balance continues. At least America will add its debt of U.S. $ 10 trillion in this decade.
3. Excessive Global Foreign Exchange Reserves - reserves of the world's countries will be exponential bloated - but stored in the value of paper currency whose value is shrinking - while the gold reserves of the world's countries will continue its decline which started thirty years ago (1980).
4. Attitudes to the Central Bank Gold - the world's central banks will tend to increase the IMF's gold reserves and selling only gold (and Indonesia, which sells 24% gold reserves at the end of 2006 then!). India's central bank such as buying the entire 200 tonnes of IMF gold, which sold late last year, while China's central bank actually managed to double its gold reserves from 395 tonnes to 1.054 tonnes of digits in the last decade.
5. Gold Is Not Bubble - gold price is the price of goods that are physically never loses its value in the history of human civilization. So the high price of gold is not a bubble or a bubble - that could explode and lose its value.
6. Mine Supply Is Flat - Sources of gold from the mine excavation is relatively unable to pursue growth in demand, during the last 20 years only adds to this new mineral supply as much as 25% or an average of just 1.25% per annum.
7. Investment Demand - because of fears of various other investment instruments, investment demand in gold will continue to increase globally. Since the beginning of 2009 world gold demand continues to increase - even in the second quarter of this year the request two times larger than the same period the previous year. This explains why so far this year the world gold price does not go down and down.
8. Commodity Price Cycle - since the year 1800 the world experienced commodity prices cycle up and down periods of each cycle could be one to several decades. So the current bull cycle could still be continued through the next few years.
9. Geopolitical Environment - Historically, gold prices are always high on the political and financial turmoil. World gold price peak like 1980 never happened in the year during the U.S. hostage crisis in Iran are almost triggered a major war. Coming years is still a lot of sources of global conflict that could explode anytime. After the decline of Iraq crisis, for example, there is still triggered the crisis in Afghanistan attack U.S. and allied troops into the country, the crisis triggered by the occupation of Palestinian Jewish soldiers who are not entitled to the area, the courage to continue to prepare Iran's nuclear program, as well as the threat of North Korea can be reckless at any time.
SOURCCE :
http://www.emas24.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=156:harga-emas-dari-september-ke-september--seasonal-dan-systemic&catid=27:new-to-joomla&Itemid=44
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