Outside the official government data that is commonly used for economic indicators such as inflation, unemployment, consumer price index etc.., Economists also often use other data that are not commonly used as an indicator of the economy - but no less accurate or even often more accurate in describe the actual situation of the global economy. Among these unusual data is an index of sea freight costs incurred by the Baltic Exchange - London.

Index called the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) illustrates the level of the cost of sea freight from around the world. Every day this data is collected by a large number of brokers from the Baltic sea freight around the world, so this data is accurate and up-to-date. Even the accuracy and the - up - to date resembles his world gold price movements, so that from this data can be analyzed both correlations.

How BDI can tell you about the world economy?, Total transport ships around the world can not be increased or decreased dramatically, meaning that supply capacity of the vessel is relatively stable or increase if nonetheless increases gradually with a very small percentage increase. From the supply of transportation capacity is relatively stable, if the number of items that need to be transported (transport demand) then the price will rise - and vice versa when a number of items that need to be transported less then - would be a great rivalry between the sea freight company so that freight prices will fall .

When the world experienced a serious economic crisis, the world's consumption of goods that need to be reduced drastically so transported at sea also dropped drastically as well. Sea freight prices-even anjlog therefore low demand. Note the chart below BDI for the last quarter of 2008.

After that the world tried to recover with difficulty as shown in the last two years from the above chart. If we enlarge the graph to see how this develops over the last six months, we will look like in the second graph below. Where there is a decrease in demand again the last two months - though not as bad as the end of 2008.

So what does the information that is written between the lines of the BDI and the world gold price?. Its normal price of gold will follow the price of other physical commodities, when commodity prices are low because demand is down - then so too will happen to the price of gold.

This can be shown with the third chart below, where the first graph above BDI which I seized with the world gold price charts in the same period. Not exactly but we can see the pattern of his resemblance to one another.

When no other factors that may influence other than solely by supply and demand, it could be two such graphs (Gold and BDI) will coincide with one another. However, because gold prices are more vulnerable than the moment the issue affected the prices of sea freight, then from time to time differences in the direction of these two graphs.

The last two weeks, for example, the graph of BDI is back up - but instead of gold down the charts - this is what I call the taste factor in my article two days ago with the title "Gold Price: Between the Sense and Reality ...". After a 'taste' the moment passed, then the gold chart going back to his original nature is up!.

In addition to the above factors there are tastes of other differences which drive up the price of gold that are not owned by the BDI, consider the example in the period a year between May 2009 - May 2010. What causes this upward impulse?, This is the factor of inflation or the declining purchasing power of paper money. BDI was measured with paper money with the assumption that purchasing power is stable, while gold prices, as measured by paper money is also going to look up - not because its value goes up, but by the purchasing power of paper money is real down.

So would the direction where the price of gold, the days, weeks or months ahead?, One of which can be inferred from the tip of the BDI graph upwards. Wa Allahu knows best.

SOURCE :
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